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Photo: Mario Tama/Getty ImagesWelcome to “What the Polls Say Today,” Intelligencer’s daily series breaking down all the latest polling news on the 2022 midterms. Now, an Insider Advantage survey for Lake’s old Fox affiliate station shows her blowing out to an 11-point lead at 54-43. It shows Republican Christine Drazan leading Democrat Tina Kotek by 1.3 percent (41.7-40.4), with ex-Democratic independent Betsy Johnson at 13.2 percent. Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1982. It’s being backed by many environmental groups and also by the California Democratic Party.1 month ago New York Magazine
In the last midterm, in 2018, the authoritative Cook Political Report listed 73 Republican-held House seats as being up for grabs in competitive races (toss-ups or leaning to one party or the other). In the 2022 cycle, Cook has just 44 Democratic House seats as being at risk in competitive races. The efforts of both parties to protect their own House seats via control of the redistricting process also reduces exposure to big losses. In essence, both parties are trading the opportunity for big gains for a reduced risk of big losses. But there’s another factor as important as reduced exposure in placing something of a cap on Republican gains this year.1 month ago New York Magazine
Beasley emphasized the special importance of Black women, who are often considered the bedrock of the Democratic Party. “In fact, our North Carolina Democratic Party chair is an African American woman: Dr. Bobbie Richardson,” she said. “And even after all of that violence, he voted against certifying the 2020 election. By comparison, the 2020 race between Cunningham and Tillis was one of the most expensive that year with total spending of more than $271 million. When asked if her party could be doing more to invest in this race, Beasley declined to criticize the support and instead expressed gratitude.1 month ago New York Magazine
After all the primaries, campaigning, polling, Trump endorsements, Democratic anxiety, and historically unprecedented spending, Election Day 2022 is just hours away. We’ll be tracking the latest developments up to, during, and after Election Day below. According to the nonpartisan group OpenSecrets, Democrats, Republicans, and outside PACs spent a total of $16.7 billion this cycle — surpassing the previous record set in 2018 of $14.1 billion. In close second is the heated Pennsylvania race, where Democrats and Republicans have spent $221 million combined. Get ready for the blood-moon midtermsIf the 2022 midterms didn’t seem foreboding enough on their own, there will be a total lunar eclipse during the early hours of Election Day.19 days ago New York Magazine
Photo: Richard Ellis/UPI/ShutterstockKanye West has dominated the news for the past few weeks by spewing antisemitic rhetoric, ushered along by opportunistic right-wing personalities. Emails between the consultants and advisers to his campaign show the efforts to get him to run a more active presidential campaign (while spending even more of his money in the process) and his evident lack of interest in running. “I’m doing a new video.” Instead, he seems focused on minor details like the specific wording of the campaign website as it related to drawing traffic from search engines and the apparel being sold in his online campaign store. Needless to say, West’s ultimate impact on the presidential campaign was basically nil. The rapper’s campaign submitted sufficient signatures in both states but he did not make the ballot there for technical reasons.1 month ago New York Magazine
Photo: Carina Johansen/NTB/AFP via Getty ImagesThe convergence of Elon Musk and Twitter has been like an experiment in high-energy physics that distorts time and even reality itself. If it feels surreal to you, as if this suspense about Musk taking over Twitter would go on forever, you’re not alone. Still, it doesn’t look like there’s anything standing in the way of Musk being the next CEO by Halloween. According to Reuters, an internal Twitter study is flashing a warning sign that its heaviest users are abandoning the platform. This won’t exactly be a surprise to Musk, since he’s spent so much time complaining about how spammy Twitter is.1 month ago New York Magazine
Indeed, one common thought was that control of the chamber might again come down to an overtime runoff in Georgia. A 54-46 Republican Senate is a real possibility if current trends persist. And in September, one pollster, Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group, showed Washington’s Patty Murray only leading Tiffany Smiley by two points. The Cook report shows 58 competitive House races with 32 of them rated as toss-ups. In 2020, Republicans won every Cook toss-up House race (27 out of 27).1 month ago New York Magazine