After allowing inflation to surge to a multi-decade high of 9.1 percent by means of an overly expansive monetary policy, the Fed has now dramatically reversed course. One way it could be botched would be if the Fed were to ignore the fact that monetary policy operates with long lags, and were it to keep monetary policy too tight for too long. Unfortunately the Fed shows no sign of pivoting away from its newfound monetary policy religion. He also keeps telling us that next year—2024—is the earliest date at which interest rates could be cut. Knowing that such cuts are anathema to President Biden, it is difficult to see how a protracted debt ceiling fight is to be avoided.
This isn’t just supplanting the “law and order” dog whistle with openly saying black people are criminals who require rigorous policing by the state. In short, the dog whistle is becoming a rebel yell. When Confederate soldiers entered into combat, they let loose shrieking howls—the rebel yell. The central distinction between dog whistling and rebel yelling is that the latter is comfortable with the political violence that can result. On Civil War battlefields, violence routinely accompanied the rebel yell.3 months ago The Bulwark
Former President Donald Trump is expected to announce tonight that he will be a candidate for the presidency again in 2024. By formally becoming a presidential candidate, Trump thinks he’ll get an edge on prosecutors. He craves his narrative: “Dems are trying to take down an announced Republican candidate for President. Governor Brian Kemp, with whom Trump has a long-simmering feud over Kemp certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia. And fourth, by formally announcing his candidacy, Trump loses the ability—legally at least!—to spend $100 million in PAC money however he wants.2 months ago The Bulwark
Of the nearly 130 ballot measures in states this November, there are four that stand out as having importance on which direction the country is heading. In no particular order, they are an abortion vote in Kentucky, ranked-choice voting change in Nevada, stricter voter ID regs in Arizona, and marijuana legalization in Arkansas. Voter ID Changes in ArizonaThis measure is mostly standard-fare: asking for more standard-issue photo IDs at in-person voting and some additional ID requirements for voting by mail. The big question is how large a margin this initiative passes by and whether a large enough win could move Democrats elsewhere into being in favor of popular voter ID laws. Voter support of the policies are not so clear.3 months ago The Bulwark
The fake electors were hardly the worst of what Trump visited on us. Not so the fake elector scheme. In thinking about how far up the Trump World hierarchy the scheme went, start by forgetting about the fake electors themselves. Trump not only “participated” in the fake elector scheme, he orchestrated it. Other fake Trump electors failed to follow state rules specifying where they were required to meet, but nevertheless certified that they had done so.1 month ago The Bulwark
In China this week, Chairman Xi Jinping secured a third term, defying the norm that had limited previous leaders to just two. Phil Ohlmyer (Jerry O’Connell in Mission to Mars): Great, great. Great, great, great, great, great. Miller: Public perception is that it was Trump who was tougher on—Donald Trump: China. Miller: Right now, the Biden administration is negotiating with TikTok executives on a deal that would prevent the company from sharing data with the Chinese government.3 months ago The Bulwark
Kevin is a man with many flaws, but on this day his fatal one was not heeding the lesson of the leopard-eating faces allegory. Those of us outside the party—whose faces were long ago masticated—had the distance to see this dynamic clearly. How might the new Republican conference have attracted these charlatans and con men and peacocking blowhards, I wonder? The Republican Party attracted members who are childish, petty, desperate for fame, with no real concern for policy or the public welfare? Once the floodgates opened the 5 Never Kevin votes had ballooned to an unthinkable 19.23 days ago The Bulwark
In several crucial states, candidates who have claimed or suggested that the 2020 election was stolen are close to becoming governors. Let’s start with the good news: Most voters in these states don’t think the 2020 election was stolen. Two months ago in Pennsylvania, 49 percent of registered voters said “election officials in Pennsylvania correctly counted the state’s vote in the 2020 Presidential election”; 41 percent said they didn’t. But in August, after eight of those hearings, 56 percent of independent voters in Pennsylvania (and 43 percent of Pennsylvania voters overall) said they had watched none of them. In Michigan, for instance, 38 percent of likely voters say the “January 6th events and investigation” are very important as an issue in the midterms.3 months ago The Bulwark